NFL Analysis

Key Releases

Date

Event

Play

09-13-20

Miami @ New England

New England

09-13-20

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Over the total

09-13-20

Arizona @ San Francisco

Arizona

09-14-20

Pittsburgh @ NY Giants

Pittsburgh

September 10, 2020

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Houston 23546
Kansas City 37-9.50 (3)-9

All the Texans need to see is Bill Murray to get them thinking they must be in the Groundhog Day movie and repeating their visit to Kansas City the last time they made a public appearance in January. If you recall, Houston coughed up a 24-0 2 nd Q lead in almost the time it took to get hot dog at an Arrowhead concession stand, as the Chiefs scored 41 points across the next 20 minutes of game time in a points barrage that reminded of USC’s eruption against Notre Dame in ‘74. It might have discombobulated Texans HC Bill O’Brien enough that he made what looks like a very ill-advised offseason trade with the Cards to move Deshaun Watson’s favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, Houston did outscore the champs in the regular season at this site last October, but that’s when Patrick Mahomes was playing on a bad wheel, and his 5 TDP in the Division Round exacted revenge. It’s a new season, but would rather wait for KC to undershoot just once before bucking the 9-game win and cover streak the Chiefs bring into 2020. TV-NBC

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

01-12-20 Houston 3150.523 21/94 31/52/0/388 2/1
Kansas City 51-11.529 21/118 23/35/0/321 2/1
10-13-19 Houston 3154.535 41/192 30/42/2/280 1/1
Kansas City 24-3.520 11/53 19/35/1/273 1/1

SU Record: Kansas City 7-5

September 13, 2020

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Seattle 26-15
Atlanta 30497 (2)

The combination of Russell Wilson’s undeniable magic and Pete Carroll’s rah-rah might have had a lot to do with Seattle surviving so many high-wire acts a year ago. After all, of the Hawks’ 12 wins, 11 came by single-digit margins, with six wins by four points or fewer, or in OT. Whoa Nellie! But at some point, Russell Wilson might not be able to keep pulling these sorts of rabbits out of his hat. And there remain areas of concern for Carroll, such as a pass rush that was mostly non-existent in 2019, even with Jadeveon Clowney (who’s not coming back now that he just signed with the Titans), and needs to hope 2019s first-round pick DE LJ Collier is beyond his ankle woes from LY. The bottom line is that the Falcs look well-equipped to trade points with Wilson, especially with a potentially-enhanced infantry now featuring ex-Ram Todd Gurley. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has shown no signs of slowing down into his 13th NFL year, and neither has WR Julio Jones, still capable of terrorizing enemy secondaries. Keep in mind that when last seen, the Falcs were playing postseason-quality football, winning and covering 6 of 8 down the stretch in 2019, and rest assured Dan Quinn (once Seattle’s d.c.) knows a win over old boss Carroll is important to the sort of quick start that eluded ATL in 2019 that put Quinn and GM Tom Dimitroff in a precarious spot with owner Arthur Blank.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

10-27-19 Seattle 27-8.518 33/151 14/20/0/182 0/0
Atlanta 204930 17/69 39/52/1/460 2/2
11-20-17 Atlanta 340
Seattle 3146

SU Record: Seattle 11-8

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

NY Jets 1739.59
Buffalo 16-6.55 (2)-6

Twelve months ago, these two met in another lid-lifter that Buffalo won by a mere point at MetLife, setting the tones for each in the first half of last season. By the end of 2019, however, the Jets had recovered, quietly winning 6 of their last 8 (including the season finale at Orchard Park, when the Bills were admittedly low-keying it before the playoffs), convincing GM Joe Douglas to give HC Adam Gase another chance to forge a more-sustained turnaround. The offense doesn’t appear as flawed as it was a year ago after a lot of shopping brought in bevy of new linemen in free agency, while adding first-round OT Mekhi Becton from Louisville will eventually provide Sam Darnold with a nice bookend for protection. Besides, not convinced that Buffalo’s Josh Allen is much further along the NFL learning curve than Darnold, still guilty of drive-killing throws and the sort of mental mistakes that proved costly when the Bills blew a big lead in the Wild Card Round loss at Houston. Will ex-Viking wideout Stefon Diggs provide the Bills with the sort of big-play threat they haven’t had in a generation? While Sean McDermott’s Buffalo D is robust, Gase knows that stop unit as well as anyone, having faced the Bills twice each year since 2016.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-29-19 NY Jets 13018 27/86 23/36/1/199 1/0
Buffalo 63717 20/73 21/40/2/237 2/1
09-08-19 Buffalo 1741.523 25/128 24/37/2/254 2/2
NY Jets 16-2.517 21/68 28/41/0/175 2/1

SU Record: Buffalo 56-51

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Las Vegas 23-2.58
Carolina 1747.510 (2)

All of the pandemic disruptions of the past six months were hardly optimal for a new NFL coach moving up from the college ranks and trying to implement all-new systems and schemes, and, oh yes, breaking in a new QB as well. On the other hand, maybe new Carolina HC Matt Rhule is at an advantage, with early-season counterparts forced to look at footage from last year’s games involving Baylor (from where Rhule and his d.c. Phil Snow have arrived) and LSU (new o.c. Joe Brady designed the offense that Joe Burrow detonated in Baton Rouge last fall), though perhaps giving the ball to Christian McCaffrey is all that’s required. Rhule, though, has a lot of work to do with a culture that went sideways for the Panthers a year ago when they lost 8 straight to close the season and prompted owner David Tepper to fire long-serving HC Ron Rivera a few weeks before Black Monday. The Raid-uhs make their home debut in their new Las Vegas digs next week (with no fans present to watch the Saints), but at this moment look the more-finished product, with Derek Carr on notice that his job is at stake. Adding Bama rookie speedburner Henry Ruggs might provide the deep threat this offense has sorely missed seemingly since the Cliff Branch days, with the Crimson Tide feel to this offense augmented by second-year RB Josh Jacobs, poised for a breakout campaign. We’d rather see new-look Carolina once before taking a chance on the Panthers.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

11-27-16 Carolina 3248
Las Vegas 35-3.5

SU Record: 3-3

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Chicago 22448
Detroit 17-2.59 (2)-1

They can’t seem to get rid of him! We’re talking about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky, who, if reports from the Windy City are correct, has beaten out high-cost offseason addition Nick Foles for the starting job. No matter the QB, HC Matt Nagy has wisely decided to reintroduce the run to the Chicago offense after Gale Sayers, Matt Suhey and anyone else who has carried the ball at Wrigley or Solider Field cringed at the league’s 27 th -ranked rushing attack that reached its nadir in a Week Seven home loss the Saints when the Bears ran the ball...seven (!) times. What would the ghosts of George Halas and Bronko Nagurski think? But Chicago is just two years removed from comfortably winning the Central, the stop unit still ranked in the top ten in a variety of categories LY, and d.c. Chuck Pagano was awarded a new toy in free agency when ex-Cowboy OLB Robert Quinn was inked, creating the possibility of terrorizing opposing QBs from both edges with Khalil Mack bearing down from the other side. Yes, Detroit is a different team with a healthy Matthew Stafford, but we’re not sure the Lions made necessary upgrades on the OL or improved an anemic pass rush that allowed Trubisky to pass for 338 yards and 3 TDs in Chicago’s Thanksgiving win under this dome. Should Detroit really be favored here? “Totals” alert–Lions “under” 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

11-28-19 Chicago 24-5.522 23/88 29/38/1/338 0/0
Detroit 2037.519 27/105 22/38/1/280 0/0
11-10-19 Detroit 1338.521 27/98 27/46/1/269 0/0
Chicago 20-713 24/81 16/23/0/173 1/0

SU Record: Chicago 54-52-1

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Indianapolis 22-7.55-7
Jacksonville 204514 (2)

While various pundits have pegged the Colts as potential Super Bowl contenders because of the addition of vet QB Philip Rivers, we’re not so sure. Not necessarily about Indy, but of Rivers, who looked well past his sell-by date in an awful 2019 for the Chargers when tossing a mind-numbing 20 picks and guilty of various mental blunders. Indeed, this might be another version of Peyton Manning, circa 2015 that GM Chris Ballard added rather than Rivers circa 2008. What we do like about the Colts is clever HC Frank Reich, a robust OL (watch Wisconsin rookie RB Jonathan Taylor, who will benefit), and an underrated D augmented by the addition of ex-49er DE DeForest Buckner. Meanwhile, plenty of empty seats on the Jag bandwagon amid the consensus opinion that the mustache man (owner Shad Khan) would rather the team tank so it has a better shot at Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence next April. But J’ville has a capable QB in the scrappy Gardner Minshew, who cobbled a 6-6 record as the starter in his rookie campaign...a lot better than Rivers did a year ago with the Bolts. Note a compelling Jags-oriented series trend, as they’re 8-1-1 vs. the line since 2015 vs. Indy.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-29-19 Indianapolis 20-5.517 27/132 12/25/0/162 2/2
Jacksonville 3841.523 24/67 27/39/1/295 1/0
11-17-19 Jacksonville 134215 9/29 33/47/1/296 0/0
Indianapolis 33-2.523 36/264 15/24/1/148 2/1

SU Record: Indianapolis 24-14

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Green Bay 23467
Minnesota 19-2.55 (3)-5

Well, we’ve already hit one Green Bay prediction right in 2020, as Aaron Rodgers and Danica Patrick have predictably split. And Rodgers must be thinking the world is against him now after the Pack made Utah State QB Jordan Love a first-round pick (Rodgers knows all about this drill, sitting for three years at Lambeau before the Brett Favre era exhausted). But, even though his numbers dipped in 2019, Rodgers effectively managed the new Matt LaFleur offense that if anything will be taking more pressure off of the passing game with an enhanced run influence to highlight new star Aaron Jones and sledgehammer BC rookie AJ Dillon. We’re talking a lot about the Packer offense, but it was the D that shut down Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in a Monday night NFC North decider last December at US Bank, and this one could have a similarly slow pace as the December game now that Mike Zimmer has turned over the offense completely to Gary Kubiak, whose pet zone-blocking schemes will feature RB Dalvin Cook even more than a year ago. Like 2019 when the Pack won both meetings and flustered Cousins (who completed barely 47% of his throws across the two clashes), expect more of the same in Minneapolis. “Totals” alert-- “unders” 9-2 last 11 in series.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-23-19 Green Bay 234722 32/184 26/40/1/216 4/2
Minnesota 10-4.57 16/57 16/32/1/122 0/0
09-15-19 Minnesota 164315 27/198 14/32/2/230 5/2
Green Bay 21-2.520 33/144 22/34/0/209 2/2

SU Record: 53-53-3

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Miami 134310
New England 30-66 (2)-6

*** Key Release: New England

To those who thought the Cam Newton football marriage with Bill Belichick seemed an odd fit, keep in mind that “The Hoodie” has long been unafraid of controversial additions, having taken risks with various divas (think Randy Moss), eccentrics (like Gronk), and even acknowledged problem cases (such as Antonio Brown, though that experiment backfired quickly). So a flamboyant QB with a loud wardrobe should hardly make Belichick blink. As for Cam, as long as he’s beyond the various injuries that derailed him in Carolina (and, knock on wood, so far so good in Foxborough), he does bring a different dimension to the Josh McDaniels attack, and it wasn’t exactly ancient history (2015) when Newton was the league’s MVP. Besides, the Pats didn’t get to 12 wins LY because of Tom Brady and the offense anyway. It was Belichick’s defense, which even after several opt-outs is probably still the best platoon in the East, if not the AFC. Not to sound snarky, but let’s see “The Beard” (Ryan Fitzpatrick) suppress the Mr. Hyde side of his football personality as he did most of 2019, and go into Gillette and win again like he did last December. New England, knocked out of a playoff bye as a result, and Belichick certainly haven’t forgotten. Note that prior to LY, Miami hadn’t won a game at Gillette Stadium since 2008, or covered a spread since 2011.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-29-19 Miami 2745.526 22/63 29/44/0/340 2/0
New England 24-17.518 27/135 16/29/1/221 3/1
09-15-19 New England 43-1827 35/124 20/28/0/264 1/1
Miami 04811 15/42 18/39/4/186 0/0

SU Record: Miami 56-53

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Cleveland 1748.57
Baltimore 33-81 (2)-8

Outside of entries in the German Bundesliga and a few other overseas soccer leagues, few teams switch coaches and GMs as often as the Browns. Maybe that’s because owner Jimmy Haslam views them as interchangeable as the managers at his many Pilot truck stops. Whatever, new HC Kevin Stefanski, only 38, is Haslam’s seventh coach in the last eight seasons, and like predecessor Freddie Kitchens last year, had never been a head coach when hired. Those who want to argue for continuity as an asset have a great case study in this matchup, with John Harbaugh in the saddle for the Ravens since 2008. The contrasts couldn’t be more stark. Yes, Cleveland has covered its last two trips to M&T Bank Stadium, even winning last September, a result that so riled Baltimore that it didn’t lose the remainder of the regular season, spanning 12 games. The Ravens avenged that setback to Baker Mayfield & Co. in December, but want to atone in front of the home folks. Note that Harbaugh’s Baltimore has started recent campaigns as if shot from a rocket, winning and covering four straight out of the chute by a combined score of 139-20 (sheesh!), and Lamar Jackson itching to get back on the field after having had 8 months to stew about his mistakes which proved costly in the Division Round loss to the Titans.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-22-19 Baltimore 31-11.531 40/243 20/31/0/238 3/1
Cleveland 154917 19/57 20/33/1/192 0/0
09-29-19 Cleveland 4047.522 29/193 20/31/1/342 0/0
Baltimore 25-8.524 29/173 24/34/2/247 2/1

SU Record: Baltimore 31-11

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Philadelphia 23-6.57-3
Washington 134312 (2)

While we wait with baited breath for the new official name of Washington’s team to be announced sometime next year, it’s worth noting that the Dan Snyders can call themselves anything they want and still not change the recent trajectory that has been all downhill. Ron Rivera (battling thru a recent cancer diagnosis) is the latest coach to give it a go at FedEx Field, but we’re having trouble seeing a way forward in the short-term, as 2 nd -year QB Dwayne Haskins looked a long way from being a finished product the last time we saw him at the end of 2019 (and don’t remind those who backed the “old Skins” in the Dec. 15 home loss to the Birds, who got a miracle win and cover with a pair of TDs in the last 26 seconds, including Nigel Bradham’s 48-yard fumble return of a Haskins goof on the final play of the game that still has Washington backers fuming). For the moment, Carson Wentz is healthy, and a mostly-new cast of wideouts (plus a now-healthy DeSean Jackson) gives Philly the vertical threat it sorely missed last season. And while we’re not sure what home field means this year with few (if any) fans in the stands, home cooking sure hasn’t helped WFT, which has covered just 2 of its last 10 at FedEx.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-15-19 Philadelphia 37-727 28/157 30/43/0/266 4/1
Washington 2738.519 22/101 19/28/0/261 1/1
09-08-19 Washington 274415 13/28 30/44/0/380 0/0
Philadelphia 32-1122 31/123 28/39/0/313 0/0

SU Record: Washington 55-51-3

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

LA Chargers 24-38
Cincinnati 264410 (2)

Before we get into the game specifics here, kudos to the Chargers for adding a nice throwback touch to their uniform ensemble, a nod to the late ‘60s Bolts with the powder blue complemented by gold pants (by us always the best look of the San Diego years) reminiscent of the John Hadl era. Speaking of Hadl, it almost seems as if he was the one to pass the franchise QB baton to Philip Rivers, who after 16 seasons has finally moved on (to Indy). For the moment. journeyman Tyrod Taylor keeps the seat warm for Oregon rookie Justin Herbert, though Taylor is a bit more than a stop-gap, having led Buffalo to the playoffs in 2017, and merely tasked with avoiding the mistakes Rivers kept making a year ago that saw LA a wretched 31 st in TO ratio at a ghastly -17. Holy smokes! All part of the alarm bells in Bolt-land after the operation went sideways last year under HC Anthony Lynn, dropping to the basement in the AFC West. Meanwhile, Cincy was one of the better 2-14 teams we ever saw a year ago (yes, we keep track of such things), with 7 losses by 7 points or fewer while laboring thru the end of the Andy Dalton era. If any recent college hotshot QB looks as if he can hit the NFL running, it’s LSU Heisman winner Joe Burrow, and with healthy wideouts including big-play A.J. Green, we might get to see what all the ballyhoo was about in Cincy last year when Sean McVay disciple Zac Taylor was named to succeed Marvin Lewis.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-09-18 Cincinnati 2148.5
LA Chargers 26-17
09-20-15 LA Chargers 1948
Cincinnati 24-3

SU Record: LA Chargers 21-15

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Tampa Bay 3249.56
New Orleans 29-3.52 (2)-6

*** Key Release: Over the total

We don’t have to say much more about the changes in Tampa Bay except to note that Tom Brady is in and Jameis Winston (the rare “30-30"; man in NFL annals–TDP and picks–LY!) is out at QB. And for those who contend that Brady’s slowdown in 2019 suggests he ought to simply hang out at home with Gisele, consider the lack of complementary weapons in the post-Gronk Patriot offense of 2019. Speaking of Gronk, he’s back with Brady, who must think it’s Christmas morning with the slew of weapons at his disposal (wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, plus Gronk, are big upgrades from Brady’s targets at NE a year ago), and now Bruce Arians has a new toy to play with on the attack end after recently adding RB Leonard Fournette, who is unlikely to become a distraction as he was with the Jags. The Drew Brees Saints are still going to score, and the addition of FA WR Emmanuel Sanders, who can still stretch the field, dares opposing secondaries to commit extra resources to deal with Michael Thomas. But Sean Payton’s New Orleans is routinely overvalued at the Superdome, as its recent 4-9 spread mark at the Superdome suggests. This series has also trended “over” (5-2 last seven), and worth noting Arians Bucs & Cards teams are “over” 27-12 their last 39 games.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

11-17-19 New Orleans 34-521 28/109 28/35/0/228 1/0
Tampa Bay 175121 8/36 30/51/4/313 1/0
10-06-19 Tampa Bay 2446.519 22/94 15/27/0/204 1/0
New Orleans 31-325 31/112 28/36/1/345 1/0

SU Record: New Orleans 35-21

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Arizona 27479
San Francisco 24-71 (2)-10

*** Key Release: Arizona

Even when the Niners were clearly the best team in the NFC last season (ask playoff victims Minnesota and Green Bay, beaten a combined 64-30 at Levi’s Stadium), they had problems shaking the Cards, who put a scare into the eventual conference champs in the desert on Halloween night and were desperately unlucky to lose the rematch three weeks later in Santa Clara as SF scored a pair of TDs in the last 31 seconds, with Arizona blowing the cover on the last play of the game when a Keystone Kops-like lateral sequence was predictably botched and gave the Niners a gift TD. It’s worth noting that if there was any kryptonite to use against SF’s voracious pass rush that dismantled most enemy offenses in 2019, it came from mobile QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray, among the few pilots with the wheels to outrun the 49er pass rushers (Murray gained 67 yards on scrambles and other designed runs in the near-miss last November). The “Super Bowl losers hangover” has not always proven a myth (ask the Rams last season), and the Cards could really benefit from hybrid Clemson rookie defender Isaiah Simmons, the rare Swiss Army Knife defender who is likely to be used all over the field by Arizona d.c. Vance Joseph. This one ought to resemble last year’s thrillers, and note Big Red 7-1-1 vs. line last nine on road.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

11-17-19 Arizona 264421 25/135 24/33/0/150 2/2
San Francisco 36-10.526 19/34 34/45/2/424 0/0
10-31-19 San Francisco 28-1121 31/101 28/37/0/317 0/0
Arizona 254319 23/153 17/24/0/241 0/0

SU Record: San Francisco 30-23

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Dallas 23-2.56
LA Rams 2651.56 (2)-2

This could have been a bigger night in LA, as the palatial new SoFi Stadium at the old Hollywood Park site in Inglewood finally opens its doors. So, what would have surely been Academy Awards-like hoopla will instead be conducted with no fans (not even mayor Eric Garcetti, we suppose). But we’re not sure why Dallas has to be favored here, as we’d rather wait to see if new HC Mike McCarthy is going to be able to flip the switch immediately and turn the Cowboys into a Super Bowl threat as Jerry Jones believes. Remember, McCarthy didn’t exactly leave Green Bay in a blaze of glory two years ago. And, while Dak Prescott routinely piles up big stats when Dallas is well ahead or getting late concession yards when behind, in key games on the road he has often been anonymous, as in the penultimate week at Philly last December, costing the Cowboys the NFC East and McCarthy predecessor Jason Garrett his job. Granted, we’re also not on board with some of Sean McVay’s offseason moves in LA, including tossing sage d.c. Wade Phillips under the bus, but in their new stadium (no fans or not) and a major revenge angle after a no-show effort last Dec. 15 in Arlington, the Rams at least ought to have a chip on their shoulder in the opener. Expect McVay to make good use of Florida State rookie RB Cam Akers, gaining some of the yards that Todd Gurley should have the past two years. Tech notes—Dallas on 22-12 “over” run since 2018 (including two vs. Rams), and McVay has won and covered his three openers. TV-NBC

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-15-19 LA Rams 21023 14/22 34/52/1/289 0/0
Dallas 4448.525 45/263 15/23/0/212 1/0
01-12-19 Dallas 2248
LA Rams 30-8.5

SU Record: Dallas 17-16

September 14, 2020

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Pittsburgh 34-46-2
NY Giants 204710 (2)

*** Key Release: Pittsburgh

We’re not alone thinking Mike Tomlin actually did one of his better coaching jobs with last year’s Steelers who were without Ben Roethlisberger almost from the outset, and had to turn to rookie FA QB Duck Hodges (just waived, by the way) for a spell as he split time with ex-Ok State Mason Rudolph. In spite of all of that, Pittsburgh was still in playoff position into late December. While we and Tomlin are a bit nervous about Big Ben’s durability (after all, he’s 38, in his 17 th year, and recently had three tendons re-attached to his throwing elbow), for the moment he’s back in the pilot’s chair. The difference should be noticeable and will reintroduce WR Juju Smith-Schuster back into the big-play equation after he was mostly lost in the Rudolph-Hodges slog of 2019. We’ll see if new G-Men HC Joe Judge can reverse the trend of Bill Belichick disciples who have labored out on their own, though he could hardly be a downgrade from the just-completed Pat Shurmur regime. It’s Daniel Jones’ offense now in the post-Eli era, but not sure a suspect OL offers him proper protection and opens up enough holes for Saquon Barkley, while the D still could struggle generating stops. Don’t mind taking a lead with Steel now that Big Ben is back in business. TV-ESPN

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

12-04-16 NY Giants 1449.5
Pittsburgh 24-7.5

SU Record: NY Giants 9-7-1

Pred. Score

Line

GS PR 

PR Line

Tennessee 1641.55
Denver 22-18 (3)

A remarkable Broncos streak that dates to September 27, 1970 in a 16-13 win over the Steelers in Week Two of the merger year (Terry Bradshaw’s second NFL game, by the way) will come to an end as Denver’s home sellout streak will cease. (Maybe with an asterisk as no one fans are going to be allowed!) Whatever, this venue proved a turning point for the Titans last season, as Mike Vrabel made the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at QB late in a 16-0 mid-October Broncos win. And we know what happened thereafter with Tennessee. But this is a new year and ”Uncle Vic’s” Denver D is still looks well-equipped to keep Tannehill and Derrick Henry in check, especially with OLB Bradley Chubb back in the fold and book-ending Von Miller from the defensive edge. Need a bit more evidence that Drew Lock (4-1 SU as last December’s starter for Fangio, though a couple of those wins had little to do with Lock) is the real deal, but the Broncs might have the beginnings of an electric O with potential big-play rookie wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler stretching the field, opening more room underneath for Courtland Sutton, while ex-Charger Melvin Gordon should provide an upgrade from Royce Freeman to share carries with the vastly underrated Phillip Lindsay.

Previous meetings

Date

Team

Score

Line

FD

RA/RY

PC/PA/I/PY

F/F Lost

10-13-19 Tennessee 0012 21/39 20/34/3/207 1/0
Denver 1640.511 30/103 18/28/1/177 2/0
12-11-16 Denver 1044
Tennessee 13-1

SU Record: Denver 15-14-1

Pred. Score: Gold Sheet analysis predicted score, Line: Consensus vegas odds, GS PR: Team Power Ratings (home field value), PR Line: Power Rating line, FD: First downs, RA/RY: Rushing attempts and rushing yards, PC/PA/I/PY: Pass completions, pass attempts, interceptions, passing yards, F/F Lost: Fumbles and fumbles lost

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